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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|