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As global leaders assemble in the Brazilian Amazon for Cop30, it is essential to assess our collective progress in reducing worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

Despite 30 years of UN climate summits, nearly 50% of the CO2 built up in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been released since 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 marked the release of the initial scientific evaluation by the IPCC, which verified the danger of human-caused global warming. As scientists prepare the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so aware that scientific findings remains eclipsed by political influences. Despite well-intentioned efforts, the world is remains far from the path to prevent catastrophic climate change.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Latest figures show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a record high of 423.9 parts per million in 2024, with the increase rate from 2023 to 2024 surging by the biggest annual rise since record-keeping started in the late 1950s. Based on the international carbon monitoring initiative, ninety percent of worldwide carbon dioxide output in 2024 originated from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the other tenth was due to alterations in land use such as forest clearance and wildfires.

Although the rise in fossil CO₂ emissions in 2024 was propelled by higher use of natural gas and petroleum—representing over half of global emissions—coal burning also reached a record high, constituting forty-one percent. In spite of Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to move beyond carbon fuels, collective plans still intend to produce more than double the amount of hydrocarbons in 2030 than is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5C, with continued extraction of gas rationalized as a lower emission transition fuel.

The Mirage of Nature-Based Solutions

Instead of concentrating on financial motivators to accelerate the elimination of fossil fuels, climate policies are overly dependent on feel-good eco-positive approaches that aim to cancel out CO2 output by planting trees instead of cutting industrial emissions. While protecting, enlarging, and restoring ecological absorbers like woodlands and wetlands is inherently good, research has shown that there is not enough land to achieve the global goal of carbon neutrality using ecological methods alone.

Roughly 1 billion hectares—a territory larger than the USA—is needed to meet carbon neutrality commitments. Over 40% of this land would need to be converted from current applications like agriculture to carbon capture initiatives by 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Even if this regenerative utopia could be achieved, forests take time to mature and can burn down, so they cannot be considered as a quick or lasting carbon storage solution, especially in a rapidly shifting climate. While extreme heat and dryness engulf larger regions, these well-intentioned efforts could actually go up in smoke.

The Weakening of Natural Carbon Sinks

Research data indicates that about half of the total CO₂ emitted annually remains in the atmosphere, while the remainder is taken up by seas and land ecosystems. With global heating, these natural carbon sinks are becoming less effective at soaking up CO₂, meaning that more carbon accumulates in the atmosphere, intensifying climate change. Transferring the mitigation burden onto the agricultural and forest sectors simply relieves the fossil fuel industry from the urgency to reduce emissions in the near future.

The Carbon Debt and Coming Populations

Reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century demands carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which currently relies almost exclusively on terrestrial methods to soak up surplus CO2 from the atmosphere. Polluters can easily purchase offsets to counterbalance their emissions and proceed with business as usual. Meanwhile, the energy imbalance caused by the combustion of hydrocarbons keeps on further destabilise the global climate system. In effect, we are adding more carbon debt to our planetary credit card, passing on future generations with an unpayable liability.

To limit the magnitude and duration of exceeding the global warming targets, the planet ultimately needs to go well beyond the balancing impact of carbon neutrality and begin to remove cumulative historical emissions to achieve a carbon-negative state.

The Political Distortion of Net Zero

According to the latest numbers from the international carbon research group, vegetation-based CDR is currently capturing the equivalent of about five percent of annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions, while technology-based CDR accounts for only about a tiny fraction of the carbon released from fossil fuels. More generous industry estimates place it at around 0.1% of worldwide CO2 output. Without meaning to be controversial, the political distortion of net zero is an insidious loophole that distracts from the research-based necessity to eliminate the main source of our warming world—fossil fuels.

The Urgent Need for Concrete Action

While this scientific reality should dominate talks at the climate summit, history suggests that gradual, cautious steps and deference to politics will win out. Vague statements of long-term goals will continue to delay the pressing requirement for concrete immediate action. Unless leaders have the courage to implement carbon pricing to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are releasing more and more carbon to the atmosphere, worsening the physical catastrophe now unfolding across the globe.

The dilemma we face is simple: take real action to the evidence-based situation of our predicament or suffer the consequences of this profound moral failure for centuries to come.